Stocks, bonds, rand… it’s awful, says asset manager as recession fuels downgrade fears

Business

The rand extended the worst decline among emerging-market peers as data showed South Africa’s economy had slipped into a recession for the first time since 2009. Stocks and bonds also fell.

The rand weakened more than 3% after data showed gross domestic product unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, raising the nation’s risk profile at a time when emerging-market assets are under pressure from a rising dollar and global trade tensions. It also increases the chance of a credit downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service, which would plunge the country’s local-currency debt into junk status.

“Equities, bonds, rands… It’s awful,” said Abri du Plessis, a portfolio manager at Gryphon Asset Management in Cape Town. “I’m struggling to see any light. There is now a distinct possibility that there will be a downgrade by year-end and we won’t see the end of it for South Africa’s markets.”

The rand weakened to R15.34 to the US dollar, and by 15:34 it was trading down 3.06% at R15.31 in Johannesburg. The yields on benchmark 2026 government bonds climbed 18 basis points to 9.19%, the highest level since December.

The benchmark stock index fell 0.8%, spurred by a 2.9% slump in the banking gauge as lenders including Absa Group and FirstRand fell. General retailers tumbled 3.2%, led by declines in the Foschini Group and Truworths International.

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